Occam's rattle: children's use of simplicity and probability to constrain inference.

Running head: SIMPLICITY IN EXPLANATION Occam’s Rattle: Children’s use of simplicity and probability to constrain inference

The simplicity principle in perception and cognition.

The simplicity principle, traditionally referred to as Occam's razor, is the idea that simpler explanations of observations should be preferred to more complex ones. In recent decades the principle has been clarified via the incorporation of modern notions of computation and probability, allowing a more precise understanding of how exactly complexity minimization facilitates inference. The simp...

Assessment of Goodness of Fit Methods in Determining the Best Regional Probability Distribution of Rainfall Data

One of the most important problems in time series analysis of stream flow and rainfall data in an area is selecting the best probability distribution. Since the rainfall stations are associated and correlated with each other, so statistical analysis of the station data seamlessly are very important. Therefore, the first step in data analysis, is selecting the prevailing probability distribution...

Ockham’s Razor, Hume’s Problem, Ellsberg’s Paradox, Dilation, and Optimal Truth Conduciveness

Classical Bayesianism represents ignorance, if at all, by flatness of prior probabilities. Such probabilities are an essential part of the standard Bayesian explanation of Ockham’s razor. But flatness as a model of ignorance is called into question by Ellsberg’s paradox, which has led to the consideration of incoherent or inexact degrees of belief, both of which undermine the usual explanation ...

Early warning systems for sovereign debt crises: The role of heterogeneity

Sovereign defaultmodels that differ in their treatment of unobservable country, regional and time heterogeneities are systematically compared. The analysis is based on annual data over the 1983–2002 period for 96 developing economies. Inference-based criteria and parameter plausibility overwhelmingly favour more complex models that allow the link between the probability response and the fundame...